Micropolling results of Presidential Elections 2011

Update 24 Sept : One more result in from Fuhua Secondary (Jurong GRC).  TCB did very well at this counting centre with 46.8%, almost an outright majority. Again, entirely consistent with media reports, and this data point brings TCB’s average up to 34.5% in this sample, closer to his actual vote share of 34.8% overall. This data set now has results from 21 counting centres, covering 278,878 voters (13.0% of votes cast).

Update 11 Sept 11:00 pm : Thanks to Donaldson, BK, Betty, Paul, Wei Ming, Justicia, Yingru, Dexter , Jacqui, WF, Randi and others who prefer to remain unnamed 🙂 We now have results from 20 out of 162 counting centres, representing 268,865 voters or 12.5% of the 2,153,037 votes cast in Singapore. Breakdown of votes for each candidate and spoilt votes by polling district are available in 11 out of the 20 counting centres. In the other cases, the Counting Agents who responded were only able to provide totals for the counting centre, or I was not able to match the counting tables to a specific polling district. For polling district boundaries, see this gazette notification on ELD’s website. Not very user-friendly, unfortunately, but I don’t know of an easy way to convert the text descriptions to graphic maps. Ideally, we would map the polling districts to interesting characteristics, e.g. income, age, education etc, but that’s beyond my capabilities at the moment. Are there any readers who could help ? Having four choices instead of a binary choice also complicates the statistical analysis. I would be very happy to receive any suggestions as to how to analyze the data rigorously. Eyeballing the data, this sample confirms media reports that TCB dominated the Western part of Singapore but failed to overcome TT’s smaller but more spread out advantage in other parts of the island. Raw data is in http://bit.ly/ocqvUB (Alternate URL http://db.tt/2WiQ39I ) and for avoidance of doubt, I will state that this post and the compilation of election results is released into the public domain. Attribution would be appreciated but is not required.

Update 31 Aug 11:30pm : We’re up to 15 Counting Centres, representing almost 200,000 votes or 10% of the votes cast. Keep the data coming 🙂 As always, latest data in http://bit.ly/ocqvUB

Update 30 Aug 8:45pm: Several other counting agents have responded and I now have results from a total of 11 counting centres. If you wish to download the data, the spreadsheet at http://bit.ly/ocqvUB will be kept up to date, through there may be a lag before I can update the chart in this post.


Five Eighteen other counting agents responded to my call so I am now able to post results for six twenty-one counting centers, nine eleven of which are broken down by polling district. This is essentially raw data, but I am posting it early so that other people would be able to make use of this data for their own analysis. I am still hoping to get more data. If you volunteered as a Counting Agent and still have the vote tally from your location, I would be extremely grateful if you could forward the results to me so that I can add it to the publicly available information on voting patterns in Singapore.

Micro-polling results from selected Counting Centres - Presidential Election 2011

Tan Cheng Bock did very well in Jurong West, Choa Chu Kang and Bukit Panjang in the Western part of Singapore,  and also edged ahead of Tony Tan in Sengkang and Punggol East. At Fuhua Secondary in Jurong West, TCB received close to an outright majority, with 46.8% of the vote, ahead of TT by almost 18%. Tony Tan’s best performance was in the Orchard-Tanglin-Farrer Road-Sixth Avenue area (SCGS counting centre). In one polling district, in fact, TT almost achieved an outright majority with 49.7% of the vote. TCB still managed to achieve 36.9%, higher than his national average, at the SCGS counting centre, but TJS clearly rattled the voters in this area, with as low as 13.9% of the vote in one of the polling districts. As I mentioned before, if you were a counting agent, know someone who was, or better yet, know someone inside the campaigns who would be willing to share their data, I would really like to hear from you at PE2011@ngiam.net. An example of the results from one counting centre are shown below, and the complete data table can be downloaded at http://bit.ly/ocqvUB. Please note that this is NOT OFFICIAL DATA and was reported by volunteers after a very late night. As the Election Department’s favorite saying goes, “the decision of the Returning Officer is final”. See my earlier post for more background on counting procedures. And of course, a big thank you to the counting assistants, facilities, security and other personnel who worked through the night to ensure an orderly election despite the recount. Kudos especially to the AROs and ELD officers who worked over 24 hours straight, from 5 am on Saturday to 7 am on Sunday.

Constituency Marine Parade GRC
Counting Centre Nanyang Junior College
Counting Place GK01 GK02 GK03 GK04 GK05 GK06
Polling District MA27 MA24 MA23 MA22 MA26 MA25
Polling Station Nanyang JC Braddell Heights CC (B) Braddell Heights CC (A) 419 Serangoon Central 305 Serangoon Ave 2 240 Serangoon Ave 2
Valid votes for
Tan Cheng Bock 1,104 1,000 1,006 1,150 986 1,124
Tan Jee Say 861 880 917 921 745 851
Tony Tan Keng Yam 1,099 1,014 1,113 1,266 1,071 1,257
Tan Kin Lian 172 180 162 202 144 202
Percentage of Valid votes
Tan Cheng Bock 34.1% 32.5% 31.5% 32.5% 33.5% 32.7%
Tan Jee Say 26.6% 28.6% 28.7% 26.0% 25.3% 24.8%
Tony Tan Keng Yam 34.0% 33.0% 34.8% 35.8% 36.4% 36.6%
Tan Kin Lian 5.3% 5.9% 5.1% 5.7% 4.9% 5.9%
Rejected ballots 61 52 77 52 41 59
Total Valid Votes 3,236 3,074 3,198 3,539 2,946 3,434
Total votes cast 3,297 3,126 3,275 3,591 2,987 3,493

See http://bit.ly/ocqvUB for complete data set.

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Call for volunteers: Micro-polling results for Presidential Elections 2011

UPDATE: Results by polling district for six counting centers are posted at
https://stngiam.wordpress.com/2011/08/29/flash-results-micropolling-results-of-presidential-elections-2011/

I’m looking for volunteers who are able to help me increase the transparency of the electoral process in Singapore by volunteering as counting agents in the upcoming Presidential Elections and sharing with me detailed election results by polling district. Even though there is no legal prohibition against revealing precint-level elections results, the Elections Department only publishes aggregated results for entire constituencies – which in the case of GRCs can comprise over 100,000 voters. For more details, see my earlier post, GE2011: Micro-polling results from one counting centre.

In the case of the upcoming Presidential Elections, I expect that they will only publish figures for the whole of Singapore. This is unfortunate, because detailed results would be a very valuable resource for political scientists and other researchers trying to understand voting behaviour in Singapore. (OK, yes, it would be very valuable for politicians, too, but right now, only one party has the resources to be able to collate electoral data across Singapore. And if you believe them, they are not endorsing any presidential candidate so would not have any counting agents in the counting centres to report results to them. OK, this also requires me to assume that there is a separation between party and government, but lets’s not get into that for now.)

Please contact me at PE2011@ngiam.net if you are interested in participating in this project. What you will need to do:

  1. Sign up as a Counting Agent for any candidate. Doesn’t matter which one. This is a non-partisan project, so ideally there will be a spread of participants across the candidates.
  2. Print out the Excel template in this link (http://db.tt/90PR8OT) before you go for counting. Things will get rushed when the results start coming out so best to prepare in advance.
  3. There will be 4-6 counting tables at each counting centre. Be sure to record the counting place number, polling district number and the name of polling station for each of the tables.
  4. Record the number of votes for each candidate for each of the counting places when the results are announced. I expect the number of spoilt votes to be higher than in the last GE, so be sure to also record the number of rejected ballots.
  5. Send the results back to me at PE2011@ngiam.net. For the moment, email will do but if response is overwhelming I will think of something else.
Finally, if anyone has any connections to the candidates’ campaigns and is able to help me obtain the list of counting centres and polling districts, I would really appreciate it so that I can perform some error checking.
Please send this link to anyone you know who will be acting as a counting agent and email me at PE2011@ngiam.net if you have any questions.