Micropolling results of Presidential Elections 2011
Update 24 Sept : One more result in from Fuhua Secondary (Jurong GRC). TCB did very well at this counting centre with 46.8%, almost an outright majority. Again, entirely consistent with media reports, and this data point brings TCB’s average up to 34.5% in this sample, closer to his actual vote share of 34.8% overall. This data set now has results from 21 counting centres, covering 278,878 voters (13.0% of votes cast).
Update 11 Sept 11:00 pm : Thanks to Donaldson, BK, Betty, Paul, Wei Ming, Justicia, Yingru, Dexter , Jacqui, WF, Randi and others who prefer to remain unnamed 🙂 We now have results from 20 out of 162 counting centres, representing 268,865 voters or 12.5% of the 2,153,037 votes cast in Singapore. Breakdown of votes for each candidate and spoilt votes by polling district are available in 11 out of the 20 counting centres. In the other cases, the Counting Agents who responded were only able to provide totals for the counting centre, or I was not able to match the counting tables to a specific polling district. For polling district boundaries, see this gazette notification on ELD’s website. Not very user-friendly, unfortunately, but I don’t know of an easy way to convert the text descriptions to graphic maps. Ideally, we would map the polling districts to interesting characteristics, e.g. income, age, education etc, but that’s beyond my capabilities at the moment. Are there any readers who could help ? Having four choices instead of a binary choice also complicates the statistical analysis. I would be very happy to receive any suggestions as to how to analyze the data rigorously. Eyeballing the data, this sample confirms media reports that TCB dominated the Western part of Singapore but failed to overcome TT’s smaller but more spread out advantage in other parts of the island. Raw data is in http://bit.ly/ocqvUB (Alternate URL http://db.tt/2WiQ39I ) and for avoidance of doubt, I will state that this post and the compilation of election results is released into the public domain. Attribution would be appreciated but is not required.
Update 31 Aug 11:30pm : We’re up to 15 Counting Centres, representing almost 200,000 votes or 10% of the votes cast. Keep the data coming 🙂 As always, latest data in http://bit.ly/ocqvUB
Update 30 Aug 8:45pm: Several other counting agents have responded and I now have results from a total of 11 counting centres. If you wish to download the data, the spreadsheet at http://bit.ly/ocqvUB will be kept up to date, through there may be a lag before I can update the chart in this post.
Five Eighteen other counting agents responded to my call so I am now able to post results for six twenty-one counting centers, nine eleven of which are broken down by polling district. This is essentially raw data, but I am posting it early so that other people would be able to make use of this data for their own analysis. I am still hoping to get more data. If you volunteered as a Counting Agent and still have the vote tally from your location, I would be extremely grateful if you could forward the results to me so that I can add it to the publicly available information on voting patterns in Singapore.
Tan Cheng Bock did very well in Jurong West, Choa Chu Kang and Bukit Panjang in the Western part of Singapore, and also edged ahead of Tony Tan in Sengkang and Punggol East. At Fuhua Secondary in Jurong West, TCB received close to an outright majority, with 46.8% of the vote, ahead of TT by almost 18%. Tony Tan’s best performance was in the Orchard-Tanglin-Farrer Road-Sixth Avenue area (SCGS counting centre). In one polling district, in fact, TT almost achieved an outright majority with 49.7% of the vote. TCB still managed to achieve 36.9%, higher than his national average, at the SCGS counting centre, but TJS clearly rattled the voters in this area, with as low as 13.9% of the vote in one of the polling districts. As I mentioned before, if you were a counting agent, know someone who was, or better yet, know someone inside the campaigns who would be willing to share their data, I would really like to hear from you at PE2011@ngiam.net. An example of the results from one counting centre are shown below, and the complete data table can be downloaded at http://bit.ly/ocqvUB. Please note that this is NOT OFFICIAL DATA and was reported by volunteers after a very late night. As the Election Department’s favorite saying goes, “the decision of the Returning Officer is final”. See my earlier post for more background on counting procedures. And of course, a big thank you to the counting assistants, facilities, security and other personnel who worked through the night to ensure an orderly election despite the recount. Kudos especially to the AROs and ELD officers who worked over 24 hours straight, from 5 am on Saturday to 7 am on Sunday.
|Constituency||Marine Parade GRC|
|Counting Centre||Nanyang Junior College|
|Polling Station||Nanyang JC||Braddell Heights CC (B)||Braddell Heights CC (A)||419 Serangoon Central||305 Serangoon Ave 2||240 Serangoon Ave 2|
|Valid votes for|
|Tan Cheng Bock||1,104||1,000||1,006||1,150||986||1,124|
|Tan Jee Say||861||880||917||921||745||851|
|Tony Tan Keng Yam||1,099||1,014||1,113||1,266||1,071||1,257|
|Tan Kin Lian||172||180||162||202||144||202|
|Percentage of Valid votes|
|Tan Cheng Bock||34.1%||32.5%||31.5%||32.5%||33.5%||32.7%|
|Tan Jee Say||26.6%||28.6%||28.7%||26.0%||25.3%||24.8%|
|Tony Tan Keng Yam||34.0%||33.0%||34.8%||35.8%||36.4%||36.6%|
|Tan Kin Lian||5.3%||5.9%||5.1%||5.7%||4.9%||5.9%|
|Total Valid Votes||3,236||3,074||3,198||3,539||2,946||3,434|
|Total votes cast||3,297||3,126||3,275||3,591||2,987||3,493|
See http://bit.ly/ocqvUB for complete data set.
Filed under: Elections, General Elections, Presidential Election, Singapore | 2 Comments